主讲：李文弘，Duke University
时间：2017年9月12日，星期二，15:00-17:00
地点：物理楼北539
主持/联系：杨军
摘要：Global mean surface air temperature (GMST) is one of the most well-known and robust measures of global climate change. In contemporary climate science, the most often discussed causes of GMST change are referred to as external radiative forcings and unforced variability spontaneously emerging from the internal dynamics of the land-atmosphere-ocean system. The literature on the unforced GMST variability, particularly at interdecadal and longer timescales, is inconsistent and there is significant disagreement on its magnitude, on its primary geographic origins, and on the physical mechanisms that are most responsible. This talk will introduce our research on quantifying the magnitude of unforced GMST variability and the degree to which unforced GMST variability is influenced by internally generated net anomalous TOA energy imbalances as well as understanding how the magnitude and mechanisms of GMST variability might change as the climate warms using observational data, paleo proxy data, reanalysis and CMIP5 models.
